Photo by Martin Sanchez on Unsplash

‘Area under the curve’, ‘Excess Deaths over a multi-year period’, and ‘Disability Adjusted Life Years’ are the most important measures of success.

Key Points

  • Area Under the Curve is the most important short-term measure of success for countries — the smaller the better. But a short-term victory can come at the expense of long-term success, depending on how its achieved.
  • Excess Deaths over a multi-year period is a better measure of success for countries compared to mortality statistics like COVID-19 only deaths, or excess deaths right now.
  • Disability Adjusted Life Years provides vital information that Excess Deaths over a multi-year period can’t tell you, so these measurements must be taken together.
  • Short-termism got us here. Only a…

Credit: Nick van den Berg

The root problem with meritocracy is subtle, but simple. Meritocracy is intra-generationally just and inter-generationally unjust. Systematic equality can produce systemic inequality.


A review of ‘Patient, Heal Thyself’ (2008).

Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash

A Quick Overview

Photo by Michal Matlon on Unsplash
  • Observe something in the world,
  • Orient themselves to the context and facts,
  • Decide on the appropriate framing and the best interpretation, and
  • Act by reporting the news.

An introduction to collective action problems, including ethics, property ownership, and economics.

Photo by Ales Krivec on Unsplash

Key Points:

  • Even basic intuitions about fair ownership and use, like leaving ‘as good and as much’ are useful.
  • Perfect solutions don’t exist, good solutions have costs, and all systems require updates.
  • This is Part 1, Part 2 (forthcoming) will focus on Tragedies of the Anticommons.

Photo by Alexander Krivitskiy on Unsplash

A short analysis using first principles to understand the relationship between OODA Loops and Temporal

Key Points

  • Improper alignment between Temporal Orientations hinders performance.
  • Temporal Orientations determine your capacity to ‘lead’ in the market.
  • Faster OODA Loops help you achieve the right Temporal Orientations and take control.
  • Temporal Orientations explain why breaking into new markets and micro-monopolies aid success.
  • This is Part 1, Part 2 (forthcoming) will apply these lessons to politics.


A repurposed essay and an example of analysis in Psychology and Neuroscience


Adapted from a photo by Tayla Jeffs on Unsplash

I. Circularity

Cyril Notes

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